Strait of Hormuz Tensions Drive Maritime Attention
The Maritime Attention Index (MAI) has remained above its long-term average for over 230 days, largely due to ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This sustained attention is not just a result of the initial incident, but rather a series of recurring spikes in attention.
The Shape of the Story
In crisis communications, the shape of a story can reveal a lot about who is winning and losing. A story that dies quickly, with a sharp spike in attention followed by a steady decline, is often a result of effective communications. On the other hand, a story that keeps coming back, with recurring spikes in attention, can be a sign of a more complex issue.
Ingredients of a Resurgent Story
- Negative developments that continue to emerge
- A party that benefits from keeping the story alive
In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, the situation continues to produce negative impact, with attention spiking regularly every couple of weeks. This suggests that the story is being kept alive by a party that benefits from it, such as the Iranian leadership. The American administration, on the other hand, would likely prefer the story to fade away.
Control of the Narrative
The shape of the story in this case is a sign that the party with the most reason to quiet it is not controlling the narrative. This can be due to a failure of strategy or simply having a harder hand to play. As a result, the story continues to spike, with the Iranian leadership benefiting from sustained attention.