Russia's Shadow Fleet: A Hybrid Threat

Russia's Shadow Fleet: A Hybrid Threat

Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers is functioning as an active platform for hybrid warfare against European states, according to a new investigation published by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.

Key Findings

• The shadow fleet involves a vast number of vessels, with Ukraine's government documenting 1,392 vessels and estimates from other sources running as high as 3,200.
• The fleet reportedly transports up to 80% of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports and represents close to a fifth of all operational oil tankers worldwide.
• Drifting activity by Russian-linked vessels increased 153% year-on-year in the Baltic Sea between February 2024 and February 2025.

The report documents 54 suspected drone incidents over European coastal infrastructure in 2025, including overflights of airports, naval bases, and military facilities across several countries.

Russia's Counter-Moves

Russia has responded to rising European enforcement with military escorts, airspace violations, and a systematic reflagging campaign, with nearly 70 vessels transferred to the Russian registry since May 2025.