Geopolitics Holds Tanker Market Hostage

The tanker market has been significantly impacted by geopolitical factors, including tariffs, trade wars, and sanctions, since the start of 2025.

Market Impact

Shipbroker Gibson reports that the US President's actions, including a naval blockade and military buildup, have led to a stunning operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro.

This has resulted in a combination of sanctions relief, policy reform, and foreign investment, leading to a steady recovery of Venezuelan crude/DPP exports, reaching a 6-year high.

Market Momentum

The tanker market has seen momentum in 2026, with the VLCC market feeling the impact of consolidation, and freight rates reaching the highest levels since 2020.

10 operators now control 57% of the VLCC fleet, compared to less than 50% last year.
The markets will remain volatile as operators use their scale to control tonnage supply.

Straits of Hormuz Closure

The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has thrown oil markets into chaos, with tanker rates setting new records and physical oil prices hitting record levels.

However, the oil markets showed remarkable resilience, aided by high oil stocks and an IEA coordinated emergency release.