VLCC Market Stability
The VLCC tanker market appears to be entering a phase of cautious stabilization, with freight rates retracting from their war-driven peak back toward pre-war benchmarks.
Underlying Freight Fundamentals
The underlying freight fundamental picture remains highly nuanced, with about 55 VLCCs trapped inside the Middle East Gulf, curtailing global VLCC tonnage supply.
- Global VLCC ton-mile demand has contracted severely by a fifth, down from a 2025 monthly average of approximately 650,000 Mtm to a current baseline of around 530,000 Mtm.
- A surge in western crude exports has absorbed the tonnage that fled the East, with Atlantic crude exports to the East spiking to 9.46mbd over March-May.
Market Trends
TD22 and TD15 TCE earnings were around $100,000/day in May, slightly above pre-war levels, while the incremental US Gulf loading activity has also accelerated reverse lightering, boosting Aframax demand.